Three Potential Replacements for Sergio Aguero at Manchester City
With the Argentinian striker potentially in his last year at City - We look for three potential replacements.
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Okay, full transparency here - I’m a Man City fan. Have been since playing (and dominating) with Paulo Wanchope in FIFA 2001. I really liked the whole “little brother” vibe that the side had as an underdog - I even remember a save I had in FIFA 04, when I could only sign the less-famous brothers of successful players. To this day I still have an unnatural love for Simone Inzaghi.
Anyway, times are definitely different now - I’m not going to go through the highs and lows (I was honestly so excited when we signed Georgios Samaras) of being a Man City fan.
I’ll try to refer to them as “City” and not “we”, but I can’t promise anything.
What I will say though, is that through all that time though, there’s one moment that is head and shoulders above the rest as the best moment…..
AGUEROOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This was at like 3am here in Australia and I was doing that thing where you need to scream but cant make a noise so was just running around the house with my mouth open so I didn’t wake the housemates.
So, to cut a long story short - Sergio Aguero means a lot to Manchester City. And, it looks more and more likely that he’ll leave when his contract runs out at the end of the season.
Even if he stays, he’s not the player he was a few years ago - he’s injured way too much, and City would need a replacement sooner rather than later.
In this article, I’m going to find three players that could potentially replace Aguero at Man City.
For this article, rather than go too far into the weeds, I’ve picked players that are more realistic and hobby relevant - There are some younger guys I’m keeping an eye on, but I think they’re better as scouting reports. So I’ve just limited my search to guys from major leagues that City are likely to sign players from.
Finding Out How Aguero Plays
For those of you who have read one of my last two articles on finding transfer replacements, you’ll know that I use SmarterScout to pinpoint a players’ “style” - which is basically how frequently a player does a certain action per minute in possession (or out of possession for defending numbers).
Here is Aguero’s style from last season. A lot of a player’s “style” for a season can come down to how a team plays and how the manager sets his lineup too.
As you can see, Aguero is an absolute beast at getting the ball in the box, along with getting shots off while he’s in there - a typical classy finisher. Aguero has changed his game a little as he’s gotten older, before he would dribble a hell of a lot more and receive the ball in the box less.
He’s turning into more of a straight goal poacher. However, it’s a Pep system, so it’s a given that the striker will drop back and help in link-up play as you can see.
And when we look at Aguero’s actions around the pitch, we can see some distinct patterns. Hot example, a lot of link-up passing (blue squares) in the midfield and linking into the attacking third, and a lot of shots (white) in and around the box. He even will drop deep down into his own half - usually playing a longer ball (yellow) to kickstart an attack or clear danger.
If we look at Aguero’s impact on the field that season, we can use SmarterScout’s algorithm to give us a quick idea - they give a quick FIFA-style score out of 99, these are compared to every player in the same position in the same league.
We can see that Aguero still has a solid attacking output, and keeps the ball. The fact that his defending quantity is low but with a high quality tells me that he’s positionally strong defensively but isn’t always the most ferocious tackler - which definitely checks out.
Next, we’ll go over three players that have similar style metrics to Aguero.
Pie In The Sky Pick: Erling Haaland
I wasn’t going to include Erling Haaland because every club on the planet wants him. Hell, if Erling Haaland decided he wanted to play for the team I play for here in Australia, I’m sure we’d find a way to make it happen (note from Vince: I had to take a ten minute break after writing this sentence just to think about how awesome that would be).
Obviously Erling Haaland would be on City’s list - along with every other club. However, I had to include him because I don’t think it’s too far from crazy. His dad did play for City though back in the day. Here’s a picture of Roy Keane literally ending the elder Haaland’s career.
But it isn’t just family ties that connect Aguero and Haaland together. Their style numbers aren’t as far apart as you might think. Let’s look at their style chards together.
You can see they’re both absolute weapons in the 18-yard box and shoot at a high level - granted, they go about it in very different ways. Aguero also drops back and helps in the linkup play a lot more than Haaland, but that could be by design - I actually don’t hate it when Haaland drops in to build up play.
You can see by looking at his actions around the field that Haaland doesn’t drop in nearly as much as Aguero, but he can go back into his own half from time to time - again, usually ending in longer passes.
And by looking at Haalands projected impact in the Premier League (we can take Bundesliga numbers and try to project how they’d fare in the Premier League), we see he’d have an impact straight away (maybe not at the level he is in Germany though).
Erling Haaland would be towards the top of Man City’s list of options I’m sure - and rightly so, it might need a new little changes in play-style for either the team or Haaland, but he’s definitely worth those growing pains.
Most Realistic Pick: Lautaro Martinez
I was tossing up between Martinez and Mauro Icardi to put here…. But I went with Youth.
If Haaland is off the table, another young gun that could work well is Inter Milan’s Lautaro Martinez. The striker was linked to City and Barca last off-season, but has stayed at Inter and has been doing well.
For this, I’m only looking at Martinez as a striker - he’s played in a few positions this season.
Let’s compare their style numbers:
We see similar shooting and receiving in the box numbers. Aguero again, links up play more (a given seeing how City play). However Martinez does dribble a lot more than Aguero - almost at Aguero’s 2018 numbers.
We can see that when we look at Martinez’s actions around the ground. He doesn’t drop deep to link-up play as much as Aguero but you can see he’s getting his dribble (purple squares) deeper or out wide.
Finally, let’s look at his Premier League Adjusted impact. You can see, when we compare Martinez to other forwards he is a much more enthusiastic defender than we’ve seen so far.
While his attacking output is decent, his ball retention is a bit of a worry.
Martinez is also a way better passer than Aguero. Martinez’s expected assis numbers for this season is somewhere towards the top in the major European leagues (check yesterday’s newsletter for more info on that).
He’d be an interesting fit at City.
One For The Future: Alexander Isak
If City decide to promote Gabriel Jesus and see him as the striker to lead the line (not sure I can see that happening as of now - he’d want to have a very convincing second half of the season - and he’s another fitness risk a lot of the time), then they’ll need a backup and/or a younger striker that they can develop.
For that, I think Alexander Isak could be a really interesting option.
Style-wise, Isak’s current season is probably the closest we’ve seen compared to Aguero last season.
They both get the ball in the box a lot, both shoot a lot, both drop back to link-up play, both partner will with David Silva - the only real differnce looking at this graph is that Isak attempts aerial duels a lot more than Aguero. Which makes sense seeing he’s about 17cm (over half a foot) taller than Aguero.
The similarities can also be seen when we look at Isak’s actions around the ground. Obviously there’s less color on this graph because we’re comparing half a season from Isak to a full season of Aguero - but you can see Isak is very active around the ground.
The only thing is, I don’t think Alexander Isak is good enough to play heavy minutes for Manchester City as of now - and his SmarterScout Premier League adjusted impact numbers back that up.
His link-up play would carry through to Manchester City and the Premier League - but he isn’t at the level needed for a starter at a club challenging for the title.
Like I said earlier, if City decide to go with Gabriel Jesus as the main striker after Aguero leaves, then Alexander Isak could be a great options for a backup striker to develop in City’s system.
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