Analysis Deep Dive: Non-Penalty Goal Scorers (and assisters) Under 20s
Disclaimer: I’ll earn a small commission from purchases made after clicking links to eBay. It’s at absolutely no extra cost to you and helps keep this newsletter running and free.
We haven’t done an article like this for a while.
A good old analytical deep dive.
Today we’re going to do something pretty basic but still very useful.
When looking at goals, I like to look at non-penalty goals.
Not that scoring penalties aren’t a skill in themselves (just ask any Manchester City fan over the past few seasons), but penalty goals aren’t usually a sign of overall attacking play.
Perhaps if you start to include penalties that the striker wins and converts… but that’s a little too convoluted and the juice isn’t really worth the squeeze.
So, I just like to look at non-penalty goals when looking at player performance.
Today, I wanted to look at young guys in the top five leagues and look at their non-penalty goals compared to their assists.
The Search
Here are the search parameters that I chose.
Players under 20
Players that average at least 0.4 non-penalty goals per 90
I wanted to use assists per 90 - but there were too many guys that didn’t have an assist. So instead I used expected assists per 90. I don’t love comparing expected numbers with actual numbers, but beggars can’t be choosers
I also looked at numbers over the last calendar year.
There are a couple of players (Wahi and Moukoko) that have played under 500 minutes - it’s small sample size, but not tiny.
With that in mind, here are results. Each player’s name is a link to their eBay search.
E. Haaland: I think this guy might have a career ahead of him - big call I know. For real though, if you don’t know who Erling Haaland by now… Well, I’m not even mad, I’d actually be kind of impressed.
Ansu Fati: A bit of a forgotten man, and one with a bloody horid run of injury luck - but don’t forget that Fati was balling out before doing his knee. Last I read, he had some complications with his injury - so I think I speak for us all in wishing him a speedy recovery.
J. Musiala: The best German teen will be in the Euros squad this year and I think he might find himself some game time. The fact he’s playing so much at Bayern isn’t a joke - they don’t hand minutes out to shit players. The fact he’s had 920 minutes this season is huge.
Y. Moukoko: A player that had a reputation from when he was scoring about 140 goals in 80 youth matches - yes, you read that right… 140 goals in 80 matches, and not the other way around. Since he’s come in, I think you’ve got to be impressed. He looked lost out there at times in the early games, and still does at time - but I think there’s definitely room for him to become a leading striker. With Haaland the transfer rage this offseason, Moukoko isn’t quite at the “next in line” stage of his development. So don’t expect him to be a starter next season, but he’ll play more.
R. Piccoli: A young Italian who came through the Atalanta system. Meanwhile, Atalanta are by far the most underrated youth system by the wider footballing fan. They are absolutely pumping out talent like a conveyer belt recently. Such an impressive club.
P. Foden: I love Phil Foden. Some people don’t really “get” him - but I think he’s absolutely class. There is so much he can do on a field.
Between you and me, if I was to rank my top 10 prospects, he’d be in the conversation at the pointy end.A. Kalimuendo Muinga: On loan at Lens from PSG, the young striker is definitely one for the future. Now, when you look at the performance of young players in the top five European leagues, France’s results are kind of skewed - the league, by nature, gives a lot more opportunity to youngsters. However, so many amazing players start in France, so it’s still a good sign.
E. Wahi: Another young French striker who is having a good season - but the same warning from above applies here too.
M. Hoppe:
A young American striker at a top five European Club.
That’s good.
The club was cursed.
That’s bad.
Playing for that absolute shit-show of a Shalke side isn’t an ideal start to a career - but Hoppe should get a move to a better club this off-season.M. Greenwood: Mason Greenwood was the rage heading into this season. However, he was shooting way above his expected goals - a rough off-season didn’t help the start of this season and Greenwood struggled. The past few months or so have been a lot better, and is hopefully something he can build on next year.
The following graph takes their non-penalty goals per 90 (horizontal axis) and their expected assists per 90 (vertical axis).
What Does This Mean?
Ansu Fati has an awesome mix of non-penalty goals and expected assists per 90 minutes. Really impressive. Phil Foden is another that impresses me - to be scoring over 0.5 non-penalty goals per 90 is insane considering Foden is usually playing a lot of minutes.
The Dortmund boys, Haaland and Moukoko are both doing incredibly well with per-90 numbers. Haaland’s goals scoring, for example, is dumb. 0.8 goals per 90 minutes is outrageous.
Keep in mind though, we’re only looking at players that average over 0.4 non-penalty goals per 90 - so everyone on this list is performing really well over the past 12 months.
Your Next Steps
Subscribe if you haven’t
If you get some time, please fill in this short survey. It will only take five minutes and really help.
Again, make sure you click these eBay links - it’s a great help for this newsletter.