BOSMAN'S PARADISE: Why Big Name Players Will Move on Frees - and Why Mbappe to Madrid Probably Won't Happen This Season
It looks like there’s a big shift in the way top level players are leaving clubs in worlds soccer.
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Anyway…..
More and more players are leaving on free transfers.
Lionel Messi
Sergio Ramos
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Memphis Depay
And that’s off the top four I can think of - there’s been plenty more. It looks like, while the market is COVID impacted, it will tend to look a little different.
It’s basically what some complained about when the Bosman ruling first happened.
Here’s a good TIFO video on that.
But it’s a little more than just that.
It’s how clubs do their accounting.
Reminds me of this TIFO video. Shit - you can tell I like friend of the pod, Alex’s work.
Clubs’ Accounting is Total Player Cost (Salary + Price + Fees + Everything Else) Divided by The Total Years of Contract
So, the club has works out player costs on total costs as opposed to two seperate things (transfer fees and salary).
Usually, the top line players would demand massive MASSIVE fees and that takes out a huge chunk of a players’ pocket.
For example, if you’re a top level player, you’re probably not going to get completely screwed and left without a club.
Let’s use Harry Kane as an example.
There was talk that his wage was going to be around 400k a week (the actual numer doesn’t matter for this task, so this is good as any) at City when talk of a move was at it’s hottest.
400k a week x 52 weeks a yar = 21 million a year (rounding up to 21)
Five year deal - 105 million dollars over five years.
Then add fees and everything too. I’m not even going to try and guss what they are - but it doesn’t really matter as those will be around no matter what the price or how the move works - but just remember that they exist.
Now, add the 140 million on top of that.
That’s 245 million plus fees.
Divided by the five year contract is 49 million a year - plus all agent fees blah blah blah.
Divided by 52 weeks a year is 942,300 a week (rounded down) with agent fees and whatever on top of that.
If Kane was signing a free transfer, City could literally double his salary, and the total cost would probably still be less than paying the transfer fee.
If you’re a truly top line player (or an agent, more specifically) - why would you let the club earn half of the money when you could just double the player salary instead?
And if you’re a buying club, you’d rather give the player double the cash as opposed to giving it to a competing club to spend.
The momentum is starting to turn.
I don’t think it’ll happen with every top level player - but we’ll see more and more of it.
And if you’re, for example, a particularly prolific tall nordic striker - would you rather throw the toys out of the pram and push for a move now at a big fee - or wait 12 months and get most of that cash in your pocket? Espescially if your club wants to keep you for the remainder of your contract.
Why I Don’t Think Real Madrid’s Mbappe Move Won’t Happen This Offseason
So, looking at everything I just mentioned.
Real Madrid bid for Mbappe this week - and it was instantly rejected.
Pretty much everyone could see it was going to be rejected and the tea leaves read (unless Real Madrid really put a Godfather offer up) that he’ll see out his contract and join Real Madrid on a free.
But wait… if he’s going to go to Real Madrid on a free in 12 months, who are they bidding on him now?
My completely speculative theory is that it’s a mix of the following:
Tie Mbappe down now for a smaller fee (well, a massive one - but one they know probably won’t get accepted) in case he changes his mind
Madrid know the offer won’t get accepted so they may as well make it anyway. “Sorry, Kylian - we tried”
PSG have really nothing to gain by selling - the couple hundred million is basically an accounting error for them and they don’t need the money as they can basically side step every rule. So the potential cost of Mbappe leaving for a fee and PSG not winning the Champions League (or worse, Mbappe leading Madrid to one) would be a complete fuck-up
Now, I might be proven wrong and by the time you read this, Madrid have doubled their offer and Mbappe and all is gravy - but I don’t see it.
Again, I’m wrong more than I’m right.
Could This Impact Contracts?
I think this could really impact the risk/reward of top level players signing new deals if they know they can get top offers elsewhere.
By signing a contract extension - you’re locking yourself in to time away.
It used to be “these contracts mean nothing anyway, clubs just buy them out”.
Now, players are being held to them as the pool of potential buyers gets smaller.
Why Wasn’t This Done Before?
Before COVID, many teams just spent to get it done. There was obviously still free transfers of high level players - but not anywhere near as many as we’ve seen.
Also, the market below them was far more active - you could spend the extra to get a player through the door if you knew you could sell off three or four players in your reserves for a decent price. Those clubs are the ones really hurting and it’s flowed up and down the food chain.
I think another reason is that it hasn’t really been done too much. Players are multi-million dollar brands and being the first “that guy” who completely screwed their club by signing for a free elsewhere will not be pretty.
Will This Only Work With Top Level Players?
I think so….
The guys at the very top are a level all to their own. The pool of buying clubs is very small and the pool of players that make a difference is tiny.
If you strike out on you guy - there isn’t too many places to turn. Again, let’s use Man City here. Where to now with a striker?
Ferran Torres?
You mean this guy……
(okay, that’s Fernando Torres, but I had to try and include it somewhere)
With players that aren’t at the very top - I think there’s still potential for players to sign frees instead of a transfer fee.
However, there’s plenty more risk too. Injury, loss of form, etc can really screw a career. Even if you’re Premier League level.
Mbappe could do his ACL tomorrow and Real Madrid would still pay the money.
For most others though, the security of signing a contract is worth it.
Your Thoughts?
Am I looking too much into this?
Am I an idiot?
Do you think there’s some truth to my theory?
There’s probably a lot of other things that I haven’t mentioned here that I should - but this was written very quickly. It was just a thought I had that I wanted to expand on.
Let me know what you think.