Champions League Semi Final Preview
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We’re at the halfway point of the Champions League semi-finals, with both sets of teams to decide their tie in the coming days.
In this article, I’ll go over the two big matches and give a hobby-friendly preview.
I am writing this about 8 hours before the City vs PSG match hoping there’d be some more Mbappe news. But nothing yet.
Manchester City vs PSG
The first leg of the Oil Classico ended with City claiming a vital 2-1 away win.
PSG had the run in the first half, but City basically kept possession incredibly well and forced a few mistakes from PSG.
They head to Manchester for the second leg, and I think this match should be the pick of the two - depending on injuries.
Will Pep Tinker?
Pep Guardiola has a bit of a rep as someone who tinkers with lineups before big games and has some “questionable” decisions when it matters most.
Honestly, while there’s been a few head-scratchers, he’s the best manager of his generation, and I’ll take Pep Guardiola’s word over @kevin205822 on Twitter.
Zinchenko came on as a sub in the second half of the first leg, replacing Joao Cancelo. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Zinchenko starts in the second leg. He was absolutely brilliant when he came on - Joao Cancelo at times can get kinda stuck in no-mans land when City change things up - He was cemented in City’s side at right back a month or so ago, but I assume they’ll 100% be starting Kyle Walker to use his speed to help cover any space behind.
Mbappe?
Kylian Mbappe was quiet last week in the first leg, but even though he had only 30-odd touches, his presence was still felt.
Mbappe is such a threat on the counter that City’s backline remained quite flat throughout the first half - keeping the fullbacks back rather than having them push forward and help the attack - Doing this gave City two fewer options to pass to in order to keep the ball.
And towards the end of the match, there were calls for City to push for a third goal - and while that would have been nice, having Mbappe as an option on the counter meant that City didn’t force the issue as much as the could have - if they’d have pushed and conceded a late equalizer it would have been a shit-show.
However, the French superstar missed PSG’s last match with a minor calf injury, and is touch and go for this match.
If he’s out, it’ll almost put an end to PSG’s chances - unless Neymar has an all-timer. Which, you could say this match is shaping up to be that defining moment of Neymar’s PSG stay.
Granted, they’ll also have Mauro Icardi on the bench to bring in - so they’re not exactly replacing him with some spud.
Prediction
I think City are too good at the moment, even if PSG do have Mbappe.
Without Mbappe - PSG will really struggle, unless Neymar balls the fuck out.
Even then though, City can just play keepings off for 90 minutes.
Players to Watch
Here are a few hobby relevant guys to keep an eye on:
Phil Foden: Fuck I love Phil Foden. And, now I’ve pushed my obvious City bias aside, I won’t even pretend to be impartial. He’s City’s most dynamic player, and when he is on song, City are at their best. He was so dangerous last week and had a few little half chances that just came form nothing.
Neymar: Neymar’s first half last week was sublime. Absolutely outstanding. And then, in the second half - you’d be mistaken for thinking he was subbed off at half time. If PSG are to make anything from this match, especially if Mbappe is out, they’ll need Neymar to be at full strength.
Riyad Mahrez: I’ll say it - underrated. In a team full of stars, Mahrez often gets left behind. But when he’s in form like he is at the moment, he’s almost unplayable. I have a feeling he might cause some havoc this match if things fall right for him.
Chelsea vs Real Madrid
The second match involves Chelsea and Real Madrid - Chelsea took an early lead and probably should have put the tie away with some early dominance. However, they didn’t capitalize and Madrid ended up getting a goal to end the match 1-1.
Now, Chelsea will have the second leg at home and will look to progress through - but don’t count Real Madrid out of this one.
Watch for Direct Attacks
Once the teams settled in the first leg, they kinda cancelled each other out.
In this leg, I see some direct attacks - as I can’t see either side dominating possession in the opponent’s half.
For Chelsea, some pressing, counterattacking, and looking to hit Madrid quickly.
For Madrid, they’ll have to keep a bit more of a low block and hold the pressure. From there, they’d want to build slowly. I can see some controlled movement to draw the defenders across before playing a long and diagonal ball across to the opposite wing - ideally Vini Jr who can run at defenders.
Who Will/Won’t Play for Madrid?
Real Madrid are potentially facing a mini injury crisis.
Raphael Varane is definitely out with an abductor injury.
On top of that, Sergio Ramos, Ferland Mendy, Federico Valverde and Eden Hazard are racing against time to recover from injuries and show match-level fitness.
Marcelo was also supposed to miss this match because he was called up to polling duty for the Madrid elections (I’m not kidding), but it does look like he’s able to make the match after getting his hours done early.
If all those players are unavailable, it’ll be a tough slog for Real Madrid. Having a Varane and Romos-less backline seems like an absolute nightmare.
Prediction
I’m going to go out on a limb here - I’m backing Real Madrid to win this. I have absolutely zero reason as to who - but I have a gut feeling. All my analysis and observations in the match say Chelsea.
But shit, this match has a 1-0 Real Madrid win with a Sergio Ramos goal all over it.
Players to Watch
Sergio Ramos: The big fella is racing against the clock to come back from injury in time for this match - and he should get there. He’s Madrid’s most important player and sets the tone for the rest of the team.
Christian Pulisic: Pulisic scored a great goal last week, and will look to build on it in this match. If Madrid go with three at the back again, it might give Pulisic some one-on-ones to run into. If he can isolate against a defender, I like Pulisic a lot.
Kai Havertz: Havertz copped a lot of flack at the start of the season - coming into the Premier League for the first time…. and recovering from COVID. While under a manager that was proven to be not up to Chelsea standard midway through the season. He’s finding some form now though, and was able to net twice on the weekend. I like his chances to start this match as a false 9, making the most of the space between the mids and defenders. His card prices shot down this year too, which I thought was harsh seeing he’s still absolute quality.
Special mention to Karim Benzema, who is amazing. He’s even better at soccer than he is at being a bit of an asshole.
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