Crunching Numbers: Gnabry? Diatta? Mbappe? Finding a Mo Salah Replacement at Liverpool
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Mohammad Salah is usually a pretty quiet achiever - he’s not really active in the after-match press conferences, and he doesn’t do many interviews.
So when he was in the Spanish press talking about how unhappy he is at Liverpool it raised a few eyebrows.
Now, I don’t know if Salah will leave this transfer window or not… However, with Liverpool’s age profile (Salah, Mane and Firmino are all 28 or 29), they won’t exactly hate the opportunity to get younger up front.
In this article, we’ll try and find some suitable replacements for Mo Salah that won’t break the bank.
We’ll also see why this is important for card collectors.
(Note, I’m writing this about half a week before publishing - so there’s every chance that game-changing info comes out between me writing this and you reading it, and I forget to edit the article).
Don’t Want To Read The Rest? Here’s The Top Choices
If you don’t want to read the entire article, here are the players that I think would be a great fit (with links to their eBay pages):
If you want to read a little more into why these players are great fits, keep reading.
Finding Players Like Salah
To find a replacement, the first thing we need to do is figure out how Mo Salah plays and what he does that makes him special.
It’s important to remember that Mo Salah has been one of the best attacking players in the Premier League since he joined Liverpool. You don’t just find a player like Mo Salah - If players of his quality were common then every team would have one.
However, we can try to find suitable replacements. One tool that I’ve been using recently is called SmarterScout, and it’s a great way to find players that play in a ‘similar’ way to another, along with seeing how a player might fare in a different league.
SmarterScout uses real stats and data to give players an adjusted score out of 99 for actions and skills around the pitch. These are all set against a ‘benchmark league’, meaning you could be an 80 out of 99 in the Premier League for something, but you’d transfer as a 90 out of 99 in Serie A.
To find potential replacements, I’ve taken the data from Salah’s 2019/20 season. Here is how he compares against other Premier League players in four different aspects of the game (attacking output, defending quality, defending quantity, and ball retention).
Obviously, the higher the number, the better he is at that aspect. Note, these are position-based scores. So these numbers are only in relation to other right wingers.
As you can see, his attacking output is absolutely awesome - which shouldn’t surprise anyone. Along with that, his defending quality is very high for a winger.
His defending quantity is about average though… I think the quality/quantity difference is due to Salah’s defensive positioning and the way Liverpool play.
We can also see how frequently Salah attempts particular actions around the field, or his “style”.
As you can see, he frequently gets the ball in the box, along with shooting a lot. He also attempts to get involved with link up play (passes that go less than 10m towards goal) a lot, whereas he doesn’t dribble as much as he used to a few years ago - nor does he pass towards goal (passes that go more than 10m towards goal) a lot.
Keep in mind, Salah’s ‘style’ has to do with the way Liverpool play, and his role in the team. Also, as an inverted winger, his body position usually isn’t open to play longer passes forward - instead he’s the one at the end of those passes.
Along with all this, we can see Salah’s most common actions around the pitch. He plays a lot of shorter passes (the blue squares), however doesn’t mind dropping in deep and playing longer balls (yellow squares). Also, being an inverted winger, he doesn’t attempt many crosses.
He also has a definite part of the field that he likes to shoot from (white squares).
So, I took some SmarterScout data and models, and found some players that match Salah’s playing style, who could translate to the Premier League.
The Search Parameters
Here are the parameters I used when creating a shortlist:
As mentioned, I used Salah’s 2019/20 season as the benchmark to compare to, as it was the last full season
I only used players 25 and under (to try and lower the age profile of the attacking trio
I only looked at a players’ 2019/20, or 20/21 season
I only looked at the top leagues in England, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and anyone in the Champions League
The Potential Replacements
With that in mind - here are three players that could be a potential Mo Salah replacement at Liverpool.
The data for each player was taken from the current season.
Next, we’ll look at why every player would be a good fit.
Krepin Diatta
I was pretty stoked to see Diatta’s name pop up on this list.
He’s been a player that I’ve been keeping an eye on for a while, and if you’ve been reading here for a few months I’m sure you’ve heard me mention him once or twice.
He’s been playing incredibly well for Club Brugge in his time there, and his play style is similar to Salah’s as you can see in the graph below.
Looking at that graph, we can see that a lot of Diatta’s style frequencies line up with Mo Salah’s game.
Diatta is frequently getting the ball in the box, and shooting. He also likes to get involved with link play. He does dribble more than Salah though - However, Salah used to dribble a lot more than he does these days, so that isn’t a bad thing.
And if we check how Diatta uses the ball when playing on the right wing, there’s a few things that stand out.
For starters, you can see that Diatta hugs the touch-line a little closer than Salah. That’s mainly because Salah is a left-footer playing on the right side. This means that he has to cut into the middle of the pitch to use his favored foot. This usually gives Liverpool an extra body in the middle of the pitch and allows Trent Alexander-Arnold to push further up the right-side and create the width in attack.
Diatta, on the other hand, is a right-footer. Because of this he can play longer passes toward goal, rather than in-field, and he can also whip in crosses (check out those yellow boxes in crossing areas).
The fact that he’s a right-footer shouldn’t put a line through him, but is interesting to point out.
And here’s how we predict that Diatta might transfer to the Premier League skill-wise.
As you can see, he’s a little lower across the board, but still impressive.
This isn’t too surprising - you can’t expect Liverpool to pick out a 21-year-old from Belgium and he’d instantly be a top starter - there’s a lot of potential there though.
You can find his cards on eBay here.
Viktor Tsyhankov
Another name I liked to see on this list was Viktor Tsyhankov. I’ve written a scout report on him before (you can read that here), and have been following him along since then.
Looking at Tsyhankov’s style metrics, we can see that he’s got a few similarities to Salah’s play style, but does offer a few different things that would help Liverpool.
While he frequently gets the ball in the box, Tsyhankov shoots a lot less, and is more likely to get involved in the buildup to a shot.
I don’t have an answer as to why he shoots less frequently while getting the ball in the box a lot - but play style has a lot to do with how a team plays as much as how the individual plays within a team.
He also has really impressive frequencies on the defensive end too - which is great for a team that likes to press such as Liverpool.
You can see Tsyhankov’s involvement in build-up play when you check the map of his actions around the pitch. He gets the ball a lot centrally and looks to play short passes. However, he also drops deep to play longer passes too.
Again, he’s one who likes to shoot in similar spots to Salah too - which is a good thing.
Viktor Tsyhankov is another left-footed player that plays on the right-side, so that is why he is getting the ball more towards the middle of the pitch.
If we look to see how Tsyhankov’s numbers might translate to the Premier League - we can see a very good player.
He would be a very well-rounded player at Premier League level, and while he may not be the absolute attacking threat that Mo Salah is, he’s only 23 and still has room to grow.
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
While the first two names were not too surprising for me to see, one name I didn’t expect was Anders Laustrup Dreyer. The young Danish winger was once on Brighton’s books, but never played a senior match - these days, he’s a key part in FC Midtjylland’s attack.
Looking at his play style, he does shoot a lot, and get some ball inside the box. Dreyer also likes to get a little involved in link-up play and ball progression, but he does look to recover loose balls quite a lot. Which, depending on his success it either means that he’s a great interceptor - or often finds himself out of position chasing a loose ball. Odds are it’s probably somewhere between the two.
Another left-footed right winger, Dreyer drifts in a lot more than the other players mentioned in this article.
He also drops back, almost into the center circle to play longer passes. In general, he has a lot of yellow squares compared to other players mentioned in this article.
Also, his shooting (white squares) is from some pretty audacious positions - which explains why his shooting frequency is way above his frequency of receiving the ball in the box.
Finally, looking at how Dreyer’s numbers would translate into the Premier League, he’s arguably the weakest fit (only judging by these numbers - there’s a whole lot more that goes into a transfer).
All in all, Dreyer looks like a solid backup option at this point but at only 22, he’s got plenty of room to grow.
I just wouldn’t expect him to make a huge splash straight away if brought in.
You can find his cards on eBay here.
Other Options?
There were some other options that could potentially replace Salah.
The first, and most obvious, is a bigger role Diogo Jota. He’s already in the squad and has been playing well. Obviously, that would require Liverpool to find someone to be the fourth attacker, either someone already on the squad, or a transfer.
Serge Gnabry was another name that popped up as a player that plays ‘like’ Salah. However, I just can’t see him leaving Bayern anytime soon - especially in a January window.
Also, while there has been a little talk in the press about a possible move, I haven’t included Kylian Mbappe as a player that Liverpool should target. Here are three reasons why:
No shit…. Everyone wants Kylian Mbappe. Literally every article I write about teams needing an attacker could be 2000 words on why they should get Mbappe. But we don’t want to read the same article every week… and I for sure don’t want to write the same article every week.
It looks like if he does move, it would probably be to Real Madrid
See point one
What Does This Mean for Investors?
The three players mentioned in this article are just potential players that could be brought into the squad to replace Mo Salah if he does go to Spain this January.
However, there’s no guarantee that they would look to bring in these guys. In fact, if they do, I’ll probably send my CV off to Klopp.
Krepin Diatta and Viktor Tsyhankov looked like the best fits for the Premier League, and if they made the step up could already do a role. They also have a lot of growth in them.
Diatta might require a little re-shuffle or slight tactic tweak being a right-footed player, but nothing too major as he does a lot of things stylistically similar to Mo Salah around the pitch (just in different ways).
Tsyhankov seems like a better fit, being an inverted winger himself, and it would be interesting to see if he gets a call up to a bigger league soon.
Anders Dreyer is a little behind the other two as far as players that could make an instant impact. However, he has the potential to be a very good player in the Premier League one day.
All three are great prospects, and if one does make a Premier League move it’s a great thing for collectors. All three of them have super-reasonably priced cards too.
I’d also expect to see Salah’s cards jump if he moved to one of the big two in Spain. You can find his cards on eBay here.
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