Data Analysis: Top Performing Attacking Players Under 25 in the Champions League (So Far)
The Prospects Who Are Bossing the Champions League In Two of My Favorite Attacking Stats
Rather than the regular Champions League preview for this matchday, I thought I’d try something a little different. So, with that in mind, let me know in the comments, email, or Instagram what you think!
I often get people asking about what stats are important to keep an eye on, and what are just noise.
And a lot of the time, it depends.
But that’s a boring answer, so two basic numbers that I like to keep an eye on are:
Expected Goals, or xG. Basically, a number from 0.00 to 1.0 on how likely a goal is scored from a particular spot. The closer the xG is to one, the more likely a shot from that situation will go in.
Touches in the box. Pretty much how many touches a player gets in the opposition’s penalty box
So, I thought, I’d look at the prospects (25 and under) from the Champions League so far and compare their Touches in the Box per 90 minutes (TIB90), and expected goals per 90 minutes (xG90).
To eliminate someone guys that have played only a few minutes, I’ve cut the numbers to players that have played at least 180 minutes (two games), and I’ve eliminated the bottom few to give a top 48 - otherwise the graph can get super crowded at the bottom.
If you have a player that isn’t on this list, they either haven’t played enough minutes in the Champions League this season or aren’t in the top 50.
Before we get into the data though, there’s a few thing to consider:
This is only this year’s Champions League group stage, so for three matches. That means that there’s a super small sample size. One good match (or a shit one) can really mess with the numbers
Looking at xG and touches in the box is only looking at players that find themselves in the best positions to score or assist. So it heavily favors players that do their damage in the penalty box.
So, without any further ado, here’s the graph. (You can click the image to enlarge it).
As you can see, there’s a big old chunk of guys in the bottom left, and a few standouts in the top right-hand corner.
I’ve sectioned the graph into quadrants here so you can get a better idea about what each section means. (click the image to enlarge)
I’ve labelled the right-hand-side Low/Medium xG, because those players like Thuram, Ferran Torres, Rashford, and all the other players averaging between 0.4 and 0.6 xG per 90 are still going great guns.
Hell, if you can average between 0.4 and 0.6 xG per 90 minutes for a season, you’ll be one of the top striker on the planet. For example, here’s a few players that averaged that range over the last calendar year
Lionel Messi
Mo Salah
Lukaku
Zapata
So, yeah… that’s still a great number over the long-term. However, you’ve got to draw the line somewhere.
To try and give those guys a little more love, I’ve also color coordinated the graph in a different way, segmenting the players into three groups.
Again, click the image to enlarge.
Personally, I like all three graphs, but that the last one kinda feels like it gives the best representation of who’s playing well and who is performing well in those two statistical measures.
Now, let’ take a quick look at the players doing well - in no particular order.
10R Top Performing Players
Looking at the data, here are the top performing players when looking at expected goals and touches in the box.
Erling Haaland
The newly crowned Golden Boy is one of the top performing Champions League performers over the past few seasons, and his scoring record is insane!
It’s no surprise that he’s here.
Find his cards on eBay. Or try this rookie sticker of his.
Diogo Jota
The new man at Liverpool was a great signing when it happened, but I don’t think many expected him to perform like this so early.
You can find his cards on eBay.
João Félix
Another top young Portuguise talent, Felix has been smashing it this season for Atletico, and is living up to the hefty price tag that they paid for him before last season.
While I don’t think he’ll average over 0.8 expected goals per match going forward, I do expect him to stay towards the top of this list for many years to come.
Charles De Ketelaere
Here’s the first player that fits into a category I’ve named after a popular NBA segment with the great Charles Barkley… The “Who He Play For” category.
I’ve actually been low-key high on De Ketelaere for a while now, and his numbers for Bruges in Belgium have been very very solid.
The main reason I haven’t completed a scouting report on him yet is that he doesn’t really have too many cards or stickers out. Hopefully he makes the grade in the Topps Champions League set this season.
You can find the cards he does have here.
Kingsley Coman
One of those guys that is sneaky-young. Coman has been so good for so long, it’s easy to forget that he’s only 24 years old.
The fact that he plays for the Death Star/Wrecking Ball/Other Menacing Metaphor that is Bayern helps his numbers too.
Still, a super player - and a World Cup winner and only 24.
Viktor Tsygankov
I’ve already spoken about this guy a few times this season. In fact, I’ve probably had more people message me about him (and the article I wrote on him) compared to any other player so far.
And he’s absolutely killing it this season.
To be averaging under four touches in the box per 90 and still averaging over 0.6 expected goals per game means that he’s getting some shots in awesome positions.
You can find his rookie cards here.
Timo Werner
Like Tsygankov, Werner’s numbers show me someone who is getting awesome chances for himself with not too many touches in the box.
However, Werner is a far more sure-thing compared to Tsygankov.
Werner is fast and has great movement, which explains why he'd have those numbers. Not to mention he plays in a side with a large array of attacking teammates.
You can find his cards on eBay here.
Ferrán Torres
The Man City attacker has been a bright spot on an otherwise dull season for the sky blues. His performances in the Champions League have been top notch so far, and he looks like being a big part of the whatever new wave sweeps through that side going forward.
Marcus Rashford
Another of the ‘sneaky young’ guys, Rashford is only 23.
Arguably the best human in football, it wouldn’t surprise me if Rashford ends up as a Prime Minister one day.
But on the field this season, he’s shown how clinical he can be. The highlight so far is his hattrick off the bench.
You can find his cards on eBay here.
Lautaro Martínez
The Inter Milan striker was looking primed for a move this offseason, but he stayed at Inter has been on a great run so far.
Martinez, like the entire Inter squad, has played great this Champions League without getting the ideal results.
He’s class though.
You can find his rookie cards on eBay.
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Great content, I love your analysis! Keep up the good work