Expected Goal and Expected Assist Leaders So Far (Top 5 Euro Leagues)
We look at the expected goalscorers who are also getting high expected assists this season.
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We’re at that cool part of the season when there’s a decent enough sample size (15 or so games) to look at some stats without it being super varies, and there’s also enough time left in the season to see who could perform better than they are.
In this article, I’ve taken the leaders for total expected goals and expected assists so far within the top five European leagues this season.
We’re looking for players who are at the top for both.
The Parameters
Because I’m looking for players who are top 10 in both expected assists and goals, I had to put some parameters on.
So, basically, I only limited this graph to guys that have at least 5.5 expected goals for the season.
That means that there were some guys with super-high assists that didn’t make the cut - I’ve included them separately.
Otherwise, we end up with a graph with over two thousand points on it and real way to read it.
Variance In The Data
I’ve used WyScout for this data - the thing with xG and xA is that it can vary from source to source.
Their data is different than FBRef’s data. It’s hard to say which is more accurate - they use different models and there’s no real “one” way to calculate expected goals and assists; the analytics are far too young at this stage.
However, I have used Wyscout throughout these all of articles, so it makes sense to continue doing so.
Crunching The Numbers
Here is a visual representation of the top players for both expected goals and expected assists this season throughout the top five European leagues.
Keep in mind, this is total expected goals - not per 90. So that means players who have missed time will suffer in these numbers (Haaland, for example).
Basically, here’s a quick way to look at this graph.
If a player is above the red line, they’re in the top ten players for expected assists this season
If they’re to the right of the green line, they’re in the top ten for expected goals
Players in the red box are only in the top ten for expected assists
Players in the green box are only top ten for expected goals
Players in the yellow box are top ten in both expected goals and assists
Best in Expected Assists
Here are the players that are in the top ten in the graph for expected assists, meaning that they also have over 5.5xG.
Here are the players that are top ten in actual assists but didn’t break the 5.5xG threshold for the graph.
Best in Expected Goals
According to WyScout, here are the leaders for expected goals so far this season.
Z. Ibrahimović (the fact he’s played like six games and is still on this list is insane)
Best in Both
Looking at the graph, here are the players that are top ten for both.
Harry Kane was actually 11th in assists in this graph, but my line drawing was terrible, so I’ll include him here anyway
If we include the assist leaders who didn’t clear the 5.5xG hurdle, then there’s only one player that is top ten for both expected goals and expected assists.
The Dutch attacker has been absolutely dominant this season in France. He’s out of contract at the end of the season so it’ll be interesting to see what happens to him. Barca have shown interest in signing Depay, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he stays at Lyon for at least the rest of this season to try and win a title.
Cross-Reference FBRef Numbers
Finally, we can quickly go through some FBRef data and see where the differences are. Here are just some screenshots from their top 10 for expected goals and assists.
You can see players like Mbappe, Haaland, Marco Reus, and Andre Silva get a mention when someone like Harry Kane drops off the top ten completely.
Like I said, there’s no real right or wrong here - both sets of numbers are useful and pose interesting questions.
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