Find a Man That Can Do Both: Shot Creators That Score
We look at the leading shot creators in Europe and compare their xG per 90
I was watching Manchester City dance around Burnley like a dozen bouncing tennis balls over the weekend and watching some of their midfielders got me wondering about shot creation.
We all know that when looking at player performance in relation to things like cards (or just in general), a lot of the value is at the guys who score and the ones who create - or, get assists.
So, I thought I’d look at the guys from the top five Euro leagues and see how the best shot creators in the game go in getting quality shots.
To do that, I’m looking at the shots created per 90 minutes, and the expected goals per 90 minutes.
I’ve decided to go with shots rather than expected assists because I wanted to see players that are creating bulk shots…. as opposed to assists or xA.
EDIT: I guess to get an ever better look you could break it down even further and work out the xA and xG on a per shot level…. But I didn’t think of that 🤷 Hey, maybe I’ll do that next week!
The Players We’re Looking At
To make sure we didn’t get a stupid amount of players, I put the following parameters on.
Guys who are at a top five Euro team now
Players who created at least 1.5 shots a match over the past calendar year
Players aged 23 and under. We’re looking for prospects here
That gave me this pretty decent list of 32 players actually (shown in alphabetical order for their first name). Each player here is linked to their eBay too.
Note: Some of these guys have swapped teams at some point over the past calendar year, so it takes the stats of both clubs to account. Jonathan David, for example, will have his stats from Belgium counted here. I’ve decided to include it because I think there’s merit in looking at guys performing outside the top five leagues that get the call up.
Most of these guys are the ones you’d expect, but there were also some curveballs thrown in - which is always exciting.
The Results
The graph below takes the guys we’ve looked at above (the 23 and under players who create at least 1.5 shots per 90 in top European leagues), and looks at their shots created per 90, alongside their expected goals per 90.
A pretty interesting results!
But fuck me, Mbappe is an absolute god here. I might have to start calling him “The Outlier” because he is always by himself in these graphs.
His dot is getting mighty lonely over there by itself.
If you want the graph broken down a little more, here are some poorly drawn boxes.
Blue: Players that create a LOT of shots for others but expect under a goal every three games. Not terrible depending on the players’ position
Orange: Low-ish xG (compared to the rest) and create somewhere between 1.5 and 2 shots per 90. A good amount, and obviously in the top 32 list. But they’re the middle of the proverbial bell curve.
Yellow: Players that have a high per-90 xG and still manage to create a few shots a game for others.
Green: Freakshows that average at least 0.5 expected goals per 90 minutes and also create shots.
Interesting Players
Here are some of the players that I found interesting
K. Mbappé: Obviously he is a massive outlier here. Basically, he creates so many more shots than others goal scorers. There’s a bunch of other goal scorers around that have great xG/90 (maybe not .9 good though) that don’t create anywhere near as many shots for others. Find his cards on eBay
A. Gouiri: If Mbappe wasn’t here, then we’d be chatting about how impressive it is that you can average 0.5 xG/90 while still creating over 1.5 shots a game. Gouiri is getting shit done.
All the Players in Yellow: I’m cheating a little here, but all the players in yellow are in an interesting spot.
They’re obviously sitting on a healthy xG/90, but with that, find themselves in the buildup a lot. I think Rafael Leão is the best prospect, and the best player, in this list. He’s been great for AC Milan this season.
J. Sancho: He’s super close to being in the yellow secion while still averaging over two shots created a match. That’s crazy impressive. Find his cards on eBay
The Over 2.5 Shots/90 Guys: To be under 23 and create 2.3 shots per 90 over a whole calendar year is mighty impressive. The fact that they’re all in the 0.2 - 0.3 xG/90 is just as impressive.
There’s a few little-known guys on this list, but Nkunku is quality.
Final Thoughts
It’s interesting to see the young guys that are doing well in creating shots and getting their name on the score sheet (well, the expected score sheet). This list doesn’t have a lot of guys that have a heap of hobby hype, but there is a decent list of young players.
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Cheers, Legends
Vince