Four Things I'm Looking Forward to This Weekend Including Man City vs Liverpool
This week in Europe, there’s a bunch going on that I’m interested in. Here are some things that I’m looking forward to.
1. The Best Teams in the Premier League?
Liverpool and Man City has been seen as almost a title-deciding match in recent years. This season, they line up early and there’s a little less pressure - granted this is also in part to do with the fact that the Premier League has been a bit of a shit-show result wise (an entertaining shit-show, mind you…) and both teams have lost points early on.
City had all eyes on their backline this season, but they’ve actually looked decent in defense and have the second best xGA (expected goals against) in the premier league.
It’s been their forward line that’s looked a little toothless. Their performance against West Ham was passive at best. Granted, they’ve been missing strikers all season - and Jesus was back midweek, so hopefully he can get a start and an opportunity to attack a young backline that don’t have that much experience playing together.
Liverpool, on the other hand, are rocking an inexperienced backline, and have the 5th highest xGA in the division. Granted…. A lot of that does come from getting a hiding from Aston Villa.
Still…. They haven’t self-combusted like it was looking like they would once Virgil went down. In fact, they put five past Atalanta in the Champions League and didn’t concede. They’re actually the only Champions League team that hasn’t conceded yet.
Going forward, they look as dangerous as ever. Diego Jota is all the rage at the minute, I actually think he’ll be on the bench here. He’s so versatile and is the perfect sub… not to meantion that Firmino offers so much to Liverpool’s structure and in a big game, that synergy with the rest of the front three will be vital. With that in mind, I’m expecting Mo Salah to try and isolate a few Man City defenders and see if that new and improved xGA is just some small sample size theatre.
Players to watch, and links to their rookie cards on eBay
2. Germany’s Best Battle it Out
The two best teams in Germany this year have 100% been Bayern and Dortmund. They sit one and two in the table, and are top two in xG differential.
In fact, as you can see, they’re very close, with only 0.2 of a goal separating them after six games.
But the big difference is how they get there. As you can see, Dortmund are scoring, and conceding less this season. While they’ve only let two goals in so far, they’ve also scored 11 less goals than Bayern… Which is mental considering how few games there’s been.
Dortmund’s xG of 13 looks tiny compared to Bayern’s 17.5… but it’s second in the league… showing how better Bayern than the rest of the division when attacking.
Bayern have played with a pretty good press this season, and have put on the second-most pressure acts in their attacking third so far in Germany.
One thing about playing a press, is the high line that can come with it. That’s something Dortmund will be looking to exploit, ideally with Haaland dribbling into space. Or anyone dribbling for that matter. Dortmund have the most attempted dribbles in the league, and have about 40 more than second place, which is a big gap.
Dortmund are also used to dealing with a press, and have attempted the most passes in the league when getting pressed by the opposition.
So expect a lot of this game with Dortmund in possession is them getting pressed and trying to work through it.
I think Bayern are the best team in Europe, and Lewandowski is the best striker in the world… But Dortmund have enough individual quality to pounce on any mistakes, or exploit a high line if Bayern choose to use one.
Players to watch, and links to their rookie cards on eBay
3. Like Man City v Liverpool But Not as Good…
While Man City and Liverpool take top spot here, an equally intriguing game is the cross-town rivals of both teams, Everton and Man United facing off.
Everton started the season in red-hot form, but have lost two on the trot. They’re still missing a few players, but Rodriguez and Digne are chances to come back this match - Digne especially, after his red card appeal took the suspension down from three games to one.
Richalison is still out though, and he just gets shit done going forward. He might not always make the right decision, but chances get created when he’s playing.
Basically, with Everton, they’re clearly a side that doesn’t have the depth to handle missing a bunch of key players - even with Dominic Calvert-Lewin, that can’t stop scoring. This means that they’ll have to make the most out of the games where they’ve got most players in.
This game is only kinda about Everton for me though… It’s mostly about Man United.
Man United are hard to figure out. Just when you think you’ve got them sorted, they smash RB Leipzig in the Champions League.
However, I’m pretty confident in saying it now.
They’re shit…. Well, shit for Man United.
This season they’ve looked completely unable to create chances through any meaningful system that isn’t a counterattack (no, Bruno scoring penalties and free kicks isn’t a system).
And the chances they do create aren’t anything special to say the least… Their non-penalty xG (expected goals when they minus penalties) is third last in the league, only trailing West Brom and Sheffield United.
And do you see that 0.6 Man United have for npxG/Sh? That stands for non-penalty expected goals per shot. So, basically, what’s their expected goals per shot taken that isn’t a penalty.
That 0.06 is last in the league. Which basically means that they’re creating a bunch of rubbish shots.
Their 12.83 shots per game is high, but that low rate means that there’s a lot of shots taken from poor positions. Which makes sense from a team that can’t create much in open play - you end up settling for long shots.
To get their goals this season, Man United have relied a lot on the following:
Fast breaks and counterattacks
Great individual performances (i.e. Rashford in the Champions League)
Set pieces
Now, being a counterattacking team that plays quick isn’t terrible. For example, look at those games when playing someone like PSG and RB Leipzig… teams that like the ball - and in RB’s case, play a high line.
In those games, you’ll have a lot of opportunity to hit them on the counter, and a lot of space for their fast forwards to run into.
But in games where the opposition sits off and doesn’t give them that space, or their quick play isn’t working…. there isn’t anything else there.
Also, they’ve changed formation a bunch of times this season - which isn’t always a negative - but they’re still kinda relying on the same things I mentioned above no matter how they line up.
To me, there’s something in that. Their plan B, or way of adjusting, is just changing the formation and doing the same thing…
“Oh, a 4-2-3-1 with a counterattack doesn’t work… Well, let’s try a midfield diamond 4-1-2-1-2 with a counterattack… That’ll fix it”.
They’ve got a lot of players that fit in particular systems, but not a lot that can fit in the same system. It’s hard to find a formation that fits the likes of Bruno, Pogba, and Donny van de Beek. they’ve tried to play narrow in the midfield, but the full-backs (especially Aaron Wan-Bissaka) aren’t good enough, or consistent enough going forward to give them any width.
Alex Tlles does have that ability though, so we’ll see what the side look like with him back to fitness.
Regardless, to compensate for these ill-fitting pieces, they do require lots of individual talent to get them over the line in some games.
And to be fair, they do have that talent.
I have no doubt that they’ll win games this season… But I have no idea where this team is heading mid-long term at this rate. Which is a shame, because they have a lot of guys that I do like.
With that, given my huge-ass rant here, expect United to play out of their skin and win 5-0.
Players to watch, and links to their rookie cards on eBay
4. Other Players I’m Looking Forward To This Weekend
Here’s a list of other players that I’m finding interesting this weekend.
Rafael Leao: The Milan attacker has been in top form this season, and has the most assister per-90 in Serie A. AC Milan will want to build on their run of form against 6th place Verona. You can find his rookie cards here.
Mikel Oyarzabal: The Spanish international has had a great start to the season at Real Sociedad, scoring five goals so far this season. Granted, he’s scored a few penalties in there, but he is still averaging 0.43 non-penalty xG per-90, which is good for 7th in the league. He’s only 23 too, so there’s still a lot of room for growth. Here’s a link to his rookie cards.
Moise Kean: The Italian striker’s move on loan from Everton to PSG seemed like a bit of an odd one at the time, but everyone is eating humble pie now. He’s looked great this season, and has been one of PSG’s best players so far. He is a great fit in this team, and with Neymar and Mbappe out this week, he’ll have a job to do. He’s only 20 too, which is hard to believe… Feels like he’s been around forever. Find his rookie cards here.
Jack Grealish: Grealish has had a good start to the season in a Villa side that’s turned a few heads so far. He’s getting in some great positions too so far this season, and his 8.78 touches in the box per/90 is second of all players within the top five leagues, second only to Kylian Mbappe - who is a god in that stat. Find Grealish’s rookie cards here.
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