Leading Expected Goals & Assists This Season (And The Overperformers)
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We’re getting towards the end of the January transfer window - which means something different in this COVID season - but we’re still enough into the season to play around with some numbers.
In fact, I think this period is a great time to look at the differences between expected goals/assists and actual goals.
In this article, combine actual goals and assists, and compare it to combined expected goals and expected assists.
Combined Goal and Assist Leaders 2020/21 Season
Here are the top twenty in total goals + assists (GA) from the top five European leagues this season.
Looking at this, I can see a few things:
Robert Lewandowski is a god
For Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe to miss time like they did and still be high on this list is mighty impressive
Harry Kane and Son are still right up there and have been leading the push for Tottenham this season
Bruno Fernandes is the best 10 on the planet right now (I’m being cheeky and not classifying KDB as a 10)
Memhpis Depay is very, very underrated
Andy Delort, Andre Silva, Belotti, and Mkhitaryan are a few guys that you might not have expected if you were to try and guess this list
Expected Goals and Assists (xGA)
So, that’s the total goal plus assists table. Now, here’s the expected goal plus assist total.
Again - Memhpis Depay is very, very underrated
I’m still well and truly on the “Lionel Messi is having a good season” island
Robert Lewandowski drops down from first to third - but’s still in the top three
xGA Overperformers
Looking at the two tables, we’ve already seen a bit of movement.
This table has the top twenty players that are performing over their expected goals plus assists.
Robert Lewandowski is performing way above his expected goals. We expect even the very best (which Lewandowski is) to perform above 25% above. Lewandowski is at around 40% above.
It’s concerning if you’re a Tottenham fan that the top two overperformers in xGA are Harry Kane and Son. Funnily enough, if you looks at their numbers a little more you can see that Son’s goals are way above expected, and Kane’s assists are way above expected - which definitely fits into their play together this season.
A bunch of those names we didn’t expect to see on this list are all performing above expectations. I’d expect that carriage to turn back into a pumpkin soon. The only one that isn’t inflated is Silva.
Guys like Mbappe and Haaland are going at around that 25% mark
xGA Underperformers
Out of the top performers in the big five Euro leagues, there were a few players that were going below their expected goals and assists.
Lionel Messi is currently the player with the largest underperformance compared to expected goals and assists
Andre Silva is a gun and is an underrated player - often forgotten in Germany. He was all the rage a few seasons ago when he moved from Porto to AC Milan, but he’s performing really well. I’d have him in my Portugal squad
There isn’t really anyone going drastically under their expected goal plus assist total. Messi’s 3.55 is a decent amount but he’s the only one.
What Does This Mean For Cards?
Now, the obvious caution here is that player performance won’t always line up with card prices - but a lot of the time it can.
So, with that in mind, I won’t relate this specifically to cards. But player performance in general - and you can use that info however you’d like.
We can often expect players to revert back to the mean (or their mean - the best players will go about 20-25% above xG) in the long run. So a player should be performing at, or close to, their expected goals and assists over the long run.
If a good player is going at under their expected goals or assists, then you’d expect their performance to lift and begin to match their expected results going forward.
Likewise if a player is performing well over their expected results - it’s likely that their performances will dip.
However, it’s important to know that it’s unlikely a player that’s performing well above their xG this far into the season will revert completely back to the mean.
For example, Son is performing 7 goals above his expected goal rate so far. For him to go back to scratch, he’d have to perform seven goals under his xG from here on in. Possible, but unlikely. It’s far more likely that he’ll end up at around 7 goals above his expected goal tally at the end of the season.
As great as Son is (and I bloody love him), I wouldn’t buy expecting him to continue at his current rate.
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