Likes and Dislikes at the Euros Round of 16
Full disclosure here: I haven’t watched too many live games in the Euros this year - The match times are 2am and 5am during the knockouts.
It’s a bit of a nightmare - and definitely not agreeing with my day-to-day.
However, I’m doing my best to see the 5am games that are important, the very occasional 2am game all live.
The rest I’m seeing on replay. Which, is actually good for analysis reasons - not ideal for watching as a fan though.
But still… Analysis reasons.
With that in mind, here’s a few things that I like so far, a few things I dislike, and some destined-to-fail prediction.
Leonardo Spinazzola’s Carries
Spinazzola has been one of the best players this tournament, and easily the best fullback. The Italian has been lighting up the left-flank in basically every Italy match so far and has been able to get involved in all aspects of play.
Even though he’s been a pretty even attacking threat so far, for me, his key involvement has been in his ball carrying.
So far, Spenazzola has had six carries that have resulted in shots, which is leading the tournament - along with that, his carries average over 14 meters, which is great for the sheet amount he’s running with the ball.
On top of that, he’s been a part of 19 shot-creating plays from open play. Massive for a fullback. One of those plays ended in a goal too.
I’m really impressed with what I’ve seen so far, and I think he could cause some damage against Belgium.
Haris Seferovic’s Headed Goals (For one Main Reason)
Haris Seferovic has scored two of the best headed goals I can remember. Usually a headed goal glides the ball into the net.
Seferovic punched it into the goal with his head.
Normally this isn’t something I’d bring up in an article like this.
But shit… did you see Spain’s aerial defending in the last match?
Looked very awkward and without Ramos, they don’t have that bastard that can challenge big forwards in the air.
If Seferovic gets the opportunity, I believe he’ll score a header again.
Pedri’s Passing
So there’s no real numbers behind this one - although, he is the leader in through balls this tournament.
But holy smokes Pedri is good.
I don’t think I’d say that his passing range is crazy-good. But I think it’s his decision making with it (backpasses to the GK aside).
I can see him bossing Spain’s midfield for the next ten years at this rate.
You can find his cards on eBay here.
Points for Consistency
I haven’t fully fleshed this thought out yet, so be gentle.
But have you noticed the sides that have been super consistent lineup-wise doing really well here? England, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland, Denmark…. the sides that have been happy sticking to a core of players for a long time have seemed to do really well here.
And it makes sense, if you’re constantly chasing the hot hand in international football, you won’t get any continuity between your players - makes it pretty hard to play together.
I think that’s why Southgate has been so consistent with his lineups, choosing Raheem Sterling over younger players in better club form like Sancho because Sterling is used to playing in this England side - and it’s worked. Sterling has been England’s top scorer.
This thought is still TBC, but I definitely think there’s something there.
My Tips for the Next Round
There’s a bunch of other great players that are doing there thing, and I’ll chat about those in due time.
But I would much rather continue to add to my wrong predictions.
For those playing at home, here are the Quarter-final matchups.
Switzerland v Spain: Logic assumes that this is where the Swiss fairytale run meets an end. However, I am going to go against the grain here and predict a Swiss win considering I already predicted a Seferovic headed goal. I wouldn’t put money on a Swiss win, but I can see a path to scoring from them, and I can’t say that about Spain. Switzerland 2 - Spain 1
Belgium vs Italy: The marquee matchup of this round. Both Italy and Belgium dominated their groups, had mini stinkers in the last round and will want to be at their best this match. Belgium are potentially missing a few key players with injury, which won’t help their cause. I said before the tournament that Italy were my pick to win if France shit the bed - and I’m sticking with it. Italy 1 - Belgium 0
Czech Republic vs Denmark: In fifteen years time we’ll look back at this match and be like “oh shit, that was a Euro Quarter-Final?!”. However, there’s two really solid teams here. While I really like the Czech Republic players, I’m all for this Denmark fairytale after what happened in the first match of the tournament. I honestly have no idea what to expect here, so fuck it, I may as well pick a good match. Denmark 3 - Czech Republic 3 (Denmark winning on penalties)
Ukraine vs England: England have much better players than Ukraine. Ukraine are also coming off that WWE-style match against Sweden and will be banged up. England have easily been the best defensive side at the tournament, and will look to carry that on in this match. It’ll be a tricky one for them though, as I can see Ukraine being happy in a defensive matchup if that’s what England are looking for. That, of course, makes extra time and even penalties a paly here and I wouldn’t be too shocked with a 0-0 after 75 minutes. Having said all that though, England have been really solid and good for their wins, and I think they’ll get another here. England 2 - Ukraine 0
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