Matches I'm Looking Forward to This Weekend
After a weekend of internationals, we’re back to league action.
Here’s some matches that I’m looking forward to this weekend.
Tottenham vs Manchester City
Another banger for City this weekend, after Liverpool last round.
This time, they’ve got a red-hot Tottenham side.
Also, I am confident enough to make this call - as silly as I may end up looking by the end of the year. But if Tottenham can stay healthy…. they are my favorites for the Premier League this season.
Writing that felt a little gross, and I’m not sure I fully believe it. But as of today, if I was to pick a winner… I can see Jose getting this Tottenham side into a Premier League champion.
They’re playing some great soccer at the moment, and have been able to take full advantage of the high-line that teams have decided that they want to play all of a sudden.
They’re also second in +/- xG per 90 minutes.
City usually do rock a high line, but this season that haven’t played as high as normal. In fact, it’s been City’s defenders that have held the fort this season and their attack has let them down in the league, which is a change of pace…. usually City are scoring goals for fun while they concede a bunch of goals at the other end.
I’d like to see how Son and Kane match up, and if City try to play high again. If so, expect some ‘Kane to Son’ through balls.
City have had a disappointing start, although there was a talk about Pep’s contract lingering over the squad. Now Pep’s signed his contract so we’ll see if the guys are ready to play.
City has one of the worst expected goals per shot when you exclude penalties. Basically, that means that City are getting shots in poor spots. Which, if you’ve seen them play much this season, matches the eye test.
If City want to keep touching distance on this season’s top sides, they’ll need a win here.
Players I’m Interested In
Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona
This match is a little different than the last one…
I like Barca, but jeez they’re an absolute shit show at the moment. And life for Leo Messi at the moment is… well…
The thing is, it’s not all that bad though. Barca are second in non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes, and their 0.13 xG per shot without penalties is towards the top.
So their underlying numbers seem decent.
But…. something still seems off.
And now they’re missing Ansu Fati, so those numbers are expected to dip.
Granted, Barca were so good for so long, they kinda set the bar too high. These days, if a Barca side isn’t incredible, they’re a disappointment.
Still, watching them…. something isn’t right,
Atletico Madrid on the other hand, are looking good.
They’re undefeated in the league, and have the best expected goals against by a long way…. as you can imagine.
With that stellar defense, you can imagine the rest of their underlying numbers are impressive, with one of the best differentials in the league.
And now that Joao Felix is showing why Atletico paid top dollar last season, they’re a sneaky chance for a title this season.
Although, the big news story about this game, Suarez v Messi, isn’t going to happen due to Suarez’s injury.
Actually, now I think about it, the fact that this Messi vs Suarez matchup isn’t happening is kinda the perfect metaphor for their season.
Players I’m Interested In
Napoli vs AC Milan
This is another case of a great defense playing a top offensive side.
AC Milan have the second-best xG in the league (which drops to third if you remove penalty kicks), and Napoli have the best xG against in the league.
But, AC Milan have Zlatan.
Fuck, man… I don’t know what he does to keep this productivity at his age… But he needs to bottle it; I’d drink a case every day.
I actually love the Zlatan fit at Milan. When you’ve got a big club like AC Milan going down the route of playing bulk young players, you need someone to set the standard. You can say what you like about Zlatan, but he’s an absolute workhorse.
He’s also a great person to soak up a lot of pressure and questions from the media so the youngsters can do their thing.
Napoli are averaging the most shots in Serie A per match, but have an okay-ish xG. Basically, that means that they’re taking a lot of shots from poor positions.
Which, as you can see makes sense when you see that 36% of their shots are coming from outside the box.
Having said that, they’ve scored 4 more goals than their expected goals, which is close to the top in the league, so let’s see if they can keep that up in this match before it reverts back to the mean.
However, when you shoot a lot from outside the box, you only need one or two to go in at the start of the season and it can mess with your numbers a bit.
Players I’m Interested In
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