[Opinion + Fantasy Soccer Card Folio Update] The Mystery Box or the Boat?
I don’t really have the time this week to do two full number deep dives (it’s my first week back at school over the summer break and it’s safe to say I spent more time on eBay than I did planning my lessons).
Anyway, I wanted to give you something so I thought I’d use this opportunity to write a little opinion piece.
I’ll make it up to you later in the week when I deep-dive into some numbers and try to find a replacement for Lionel Messi at Barca (that shouldn’t be too hard, right?….).
On top of that, I’ll give a quick update on how my Fantasy Soccer Card Folio is doing towards the end of the first month.
… It Could Even Be a Boat!
One thing that’s popped up recently is a lot of some conversation about rookies, prices, player x is over/underrated, etc…
I’m in a tricky spot with some of this - a lot of what I do is in regards to finding prospects and younger players that are doing well and look to have an interesting career ahead of them.
Note: In fact, this is shit that I’ve always really wanted to write but never knew how to do it in a unique way - I’d never thought of combining it with cards before 🤦. So a big thank you for reading xo
However, with that comes two things:
The overrating of younger players that haven’t proven anything
The underrating of players that are already doing it
It always kind of reminds me of this scene in family guy where Peter Griffin is offered the choice between a boat and a mystery box.
“Sure, a boat is a boat, but a mystery box can be anything…. it could even be a boat. You know how much we wanted one of those”
A lot of the time we turn to the mystery box when the boat is right in front of us.
This happens in backing a high end prospect for the same price as a proven legend - but it also happens when comparing the tiers of prospects too.
Maybe it’s boring following the same great players every week; Success is usually monotonous.
Maybe you want to be the one that’s seen to zig when everyone else is zagging (oh, so edgy and cool)
Maybe it’s similar to something called Tall Poppy Syndrome - A phrase used here in Australia that basically is the expectation that poppies should grow together, and if one grows too tall, it is cut down to size.
Most of the time, that’s in relation to giving a little bit of shit to the mate who is getting a little too cocky - and usually in jest. But I think it comes in other forms too.
Or maybe we just need something new to talk about…
Don’t sleep on the players who are already doing it. At the end of the day, it’s far more likely that a gun player will continue to be great, compared to another prospect drastically improving.
How does this relate to cards? Well it depends. The card market doesn’t always line up with how good a soccer player is. It’s far more to do with supply and demand principles. That’s a whole other kettle of fish.
But there’s still some food for thought here.
Helping to Combat This? Introducing a New Scouting Model
A main reason that I haven’t written a single-player scouting report over the past few weeks is that I’m looking to try and tweak a bit of a model that should help this process a lot - and it’ll ideally also a great way to compare players in different leagues.
I don’t want to say much about it now - besides it has been a massive head-fuck and I’ve been thinking myself into knots about it.
Anyway… Stay tuned.
My Opinions:
To sum up, here’s a few things that I believe on the topic.
First and foremost - collect what you like. I bought an entire set of Australian Soccer League cards from the early 90s yesterday and I am way too excited about it. I usually don’t get excited until the cards are in my hand - but that ship has sailed. And I think I might be the only person who would want them - Shit, I’ll probably get the entire set graded!
That’ll have to make me the only person on the planet with a graded Con Boutsianis card.
Not every prospect will be great - actually, most won’t even be good (in a top European club sense - they’ll still be better than 99.99% of the planet, including both of us).
Great players need so much to happen to be great - In hindsight a life sounds linear. Man United strike up a partnership with Lisbon. Then they organize the friendly to open Sporting’s new stadium. Ronaldo stars in that game and the rest is history. What a story….
In actual fact, while it’s happening, it’s usually just a series of random events with no linear progression at all. We put it into a story after the fact, and it all seems inevitable.That’s not even considering injuries, a bad transfer, coaching changes, anything off field… there’s a lot that needs to go right. It’s actually far more likely the player with the highest potential in soccer never got the chance to play a professional match.
Even the very best player in the world is only 10% of their team’s outfield players.
There’s nothing wrong with following cheaper rookies in any sport. For me it’s a great way to follow players’ careers. Just don’t expect every one to be a world beater.
Rather than look to the “next Messi”, check the current one out. He’s pretty good!
If you’re looking at the hobby for solely money making purposes, supply and demand is far more important than a player’s performance; There’s plenty of great players that don’t have the demand.
Of course, a player improving performance can lead to increased demand, but not always.
Don’t trim down the tall poppy - in any sense.
My views on any of these might change in the future. After all, what’s the point of having a mind if you can’t change it?
Again, collect whatever you like.
Quick Fantasy Soccer Card Folio Update
I thought as we go into the last week of month one, I’d give a little update on how my Fantasy Soccer Card Folio is coming along.
For those of you playing at home, these were my cards.
2019-20 Topps Finest UEFA Base #16 Krepin Diatta
Panini Select 2015 Lionel Messi Base
Maradona 1990 SI For Kids #163
Houssem Aouar 2017/18 Foot Sticker
Krepin Diatta got the transfer I was talking about - moving to Monaco last week. However, his cards haven’t really sold this month which makes it a little tricky.
Otherwise, this graph from Sell The Peak (use the code SCR if you sign up to Sell The Peak and get 20% off for your first month) shows all of the other cards in the folio.
So far, so good!
I’ll have a full update, along with my transfers after the 1st with another podcast episode.
Your Next Steps
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