Timo Werner.... How Bad Has the Season Been?
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There was a lot of hype around Timo Werner when he signed for Chelsea. If you remember, he was actually supposedly signed sealed and delivered to Liverpool before Chelsea punked them at the eleventh hour.
That would be an interesting move actually - Would probably make both teams fit a little better and free up the log jam at Chelsea.
Anyway, Werner has been a bit of a meme this season with his finishing being well below what you’d expect - along with his physicality being a bit below what you’d expect from a Premier League footballer.
But just how bad is he?
Should you be worried if you’ve been buying his cards?
Should you be looking to buy while his prices are low?
In this article, we’ll try to find out.
Werner’s Underlying Numbers
We can use FBRef to see some of Time Werner’s stats against his peers.
Now, these numbers are the last 12 months, but let’s just see how he stacks up against other forwards in Europe’s top five legues.
As you can see, a lot of Werner’s underlying numbers, he’s in the top for most numbers you want with an attacking player. Progressing the ball well, getting assists, getting touches in the box.
But, let’s be honest, there’s one number here that we are all concerned with….
The Goal Scoring
Timo Werner’s finishing - or lack of finishing - has been a bit of a running joke this season.
And you can talk about how nice his assist numbers are, and his advanced ball progression numbers are impressive.
But it’s the scoring numbers that matter.
After all, that is his job.
Actually, that reminds me of one of my favorite Mario Balotelli quotes:
Timo Werner would be a shitty postman right now.
A lot of German football fans might tell you that Werner had a shocking miss in his bag, but on the whole he was an incredibly effective finisher.
As you can see, the last two seasons, he was performing above his expected goals - last year for example, he scored five more than expected.
This season he’s scored five under his expected total.
If you think this season has been a bit of a mulligan shooting wise, or a few bad misses has skewed the results, then I think it’s reasonable to think Werner can go back to being at least an on-par scorer.
A Wild Season
Remember when Chelsea were shit?
Man, that seems like three years ago.
It’s almost like putting a young (and frankly not good enough yet - not a pun) manager like Frank Lampard in to a position to build with kids with a long term project, and then spending hundreds of millions of dollars on win-now players and turning the heat up is a bad idea….
Anyway, that whole clusterfuck was a terrible situation for Werner to start with in England.
He’s looked a little better since Tuchel took over, and I think he’ll continue to do so as time goes on.
But still - I don’t really take the first half of his season too seriously. Chelsea were a mess.
A Different Play Style
Another thing that Time Werner had to work around when moving to Chelsea was a new play style.
In Germany, he was at his best when playing with two up front - usually Werner was paired with a bigger striker who could hold the ball up - while Werner would come in from the left.
Here’s Werner’s heat map from last season.
I actually thought this would be perfect for Chelsea - hopefully pair him up with Giroud or Tammy Abraham - and then they signed Havertz and Ziyech.
So that didn’t happen.
This season, he’s been used as either the middle man in a front three, or on the left. Here is Werner’s heat map this season when used as a striker.
As you can see, it’s kinda left-side dominant, but there’s a lot more work in other areas of the ground.
Basically, he’s not in places that he’s used to succeeding.
He’s also being asked to dribble a lot more than he used to according to SmarterScout - and pass towards goal less.
I think there has been an adjustment period - well, two adjustment periods if you consider the manager change too.
What To Expect Going Forward…
I think it’s silly to write Werner off as a meme so early.
Honestly it wouldn’t surprise me if he won the Premier League golden boot next year (not counting for any players brought in during the transfer window).
On form, he’s that good.
However, a lot depends on the team around him and if he can get that confidence up in front of goal
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