Way Too Early Champions League Final Preview
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Finally - The Champions League will be decided this weekend.
And what a crazy UCL it’s been - It’s felt like a crazy tournament with all the COVID stuff going on.
Actually - touch wood and not wanting to jinx anything - the fact that we’ve basically had a full Champions League this season without having a bubble or any postponements is pretty insane - I was not expecting that.
Anyway, in the leadup, I thought I’d do a short preview for the big game - and then we can get into talking Euros next week (or maybe later this week if I get enough time to write the first one this week).
I’m writing this article a day or so before release, so apologies if any huge news isn’t touched on.
With that in mind, here’s a rundown of Manchester City vs Chelsea.
How We Got Here
Manchester City and Chelsea have both had a mixed run this season.
While City ran away with the Premier League title, don’t forget how shit they were to start the season. Toothless in attack, cautious when defending, and just a mess.
Actually, you could say that City got pretty lucky with a poor group.
When they turned it around, it turned quickly - but it hardly wasn’t written in the stars from the first weeks of the season.
Chelsea on the other hand…. The Lampard thing was…. different. After a good season last season, he was given a bit of a win-now situation and a tricky squad to do it with. Chelsea, despite a good run without a loss, were pretty mixed and nowhere near as good as their record. That caught up with Lampard who was replaced by German, Thomas Tuchel.
Chelsea have been a lot better under Tuchel, and he’s done a brilliant job with the squad - being super solid when defending and creating a few chances in attack.
Likely Chelsea Lineup
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Mendy, James, Azpilicueta, Silva, Rudiger, Chilwell, Kante, Kovacic, Mount, Pulisic, Werner.
Havertz might start, and there’s been some talk about Tuchel throwing a few curve balls in - but I think they’ll roll with something like what I’ve listed.
This is assuming Edouard Mendy & N’Golo Kante both recover from their injuries.
Likely Manchester City Lineup
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Ederson, Walker, Dias, Stones, Cancelo, Fernandinho, Gundogan, De Bruyne, Mahrez, Bernardo, Foden
Zinchenko is a fair chance to start over Cancelo considering how important he was in the semi finals. I’d fully expect Fernandinho to start over Rodri to add the bit of prick needed for a final.
Preview
This is going to be a good one.
Personally, most of the time I don’t love Champions League matches that feature two teams from the same league - especially finals. But hey, it’s here and I think this match could be a great one.
And, one positive is being able to look at Premier League stats when comparing the two sides.
I think the first thing to do is throw out the two recent results between the two sides. City basically threw up a random lineup in the FA Cup, and the last league match was after the final matchup was decided - so both teams were pulling punches.
Here are a few key features and players to watch out for.
Chance Creation and Making the Most of Them
Both teams have been creating a lot of chances this season - with some of the
If Manchester City do score first, I can’t see Chelsea winning - well, not in regular time anyway.
Set Pieces
A lot of the time, cup finals can be cagey affairs - and sometimes it’s only a set piece that separates the two sides.
When we look at both team’s shot creating actions from set pieces, we can see that Chelsea were close to the top of the Premier League, finishing equal second in the league - with City finishing with twenty less shot-creating actions from set pieces.
So, Chelsea were much more potent creating shots from set pieces this season. However, when we consider the shots allowed from set pieces, it clouds a few things
Both sides allowed the least amount of shots from set pieces this season.
So, I wouldn’t say any side has a clear advantage here - City’s 31 shot creating actions allowed for a season is absolutely phenomenal.
Defending
It’s important to look at defensive numbers with the knowledge that they don’t really tell a full story yet.
A lot of the time they’re counting stats like total tackles or total defensive duels.
City usually do pretty poor in these types of defensive counting stats because they like to dominate possession.
It’s hard to tackle when you’ve got the ball.
One defensive metric that’s been getting popular is the ‘passes per defensive action’ which is basically a way to measure pressing.
As you can see, both City and Chelsea are above average in passes per defensive action, and are only one pass apart.
Both sides can press when needed and use it wisely to gain possession back in key spots.
In truth, these were the two best back lines in the Premier League, and there aren’t any clear weaknesses in either (although I’m not convinced on Mendy yet).
Key Players to Watch Out For
I could list everyone - but I’ll put a limit on three players per side that are hobby relevant - links to eBay pages.
Cristian Pulisic: Pulisic will be the first American to play in a Champions League Final and he has the ability to change the game. And if he does. Wow.
Mason Mount: I think people used to ironically praise Mount - he was Lampard’s main man and has been tarnished with that brush a bit. But don’t be mistaken - he’s a star.
Timo Werner: Chelsea paid top dollar for Werner and while he makes some great supporting runs and whatnot, they’ve paid for him to put the ball in the back of the net and he hasn’t done that.
Phil Foden: Foden has been balling this year. He’s absolute class and has developed into a key cog into one of the best teams in the world. He also has these moments where he will almost pull out a brilliant goal. Like, one day I think he’s going to score a fucking amazing ‘talk about it in 25 years’ type of goal.
Kevin De Bruyne: De Bruyne plays as City’s false 9 and is the main creator for the side. He’s going to have a big day, especially if the final gets scrappy.
Ruben Dias: When we think about hobby relevant, we think about attacking players, but Dias has had an absolutely brilliant since joining City and does have some highlight-level defensive plays - like blocking the ball with his face against PSG and celebrating like he just scored.
Prediction
It’s a really hard one to call. I’m a City fan, and usually don’t like predicting their games. However, I’ve tried to look at this as a neutral (although that’s hard in itself because I’ve obviously watched way more City this season than Chelsea) and give a prediction that I trust.
Any team can win this - and if it went all the way to pens I wouldn’t be shocked. It would actually be kinda funny - it’s been the City thing all year that they can’t score a penalty to save themselves. So having a CL Final like that would be insane.
To save my heart attack, I’m going Manchester City by one goal - and I’m torn if it’s a 1-0 or 2-1.
Seeing it’s a final, let’s say 1-0.
I’m expecting a tight game though, and one that’s hotly contested.
I hope so anyway, this season deserves a great CL Final.
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