Vince - how on earth is Heung-Min Son not on the list? His numbers are better than Grealish, Mane, Zaha, etc. and on par with DLC, Fernandes, etc. Qualitatively, I rate him and Kane as the two best players in the Premier League at the moment, and I say that as a lifelong Arsenal supporter.
Hey mate! Cheers for the message. I agree that Son is having a great season. If i was going to pencil a top 10 without touching the numbers he'd have been in it.
Son was actually 16th, 0.6 behind Zaha. When you say his numbers are better, what numbers do you mean exactly besides goals?
Where Son gets let down in this test would be the dribbles per game, he's sitting at around 2.5 which is way behind Grealish (10.16), Mane (8.02), and Zaha (7.8).
If i took dribbling out, he'd move up to 13th, still behind Grealish but just above Mane and Zaha.
Also, Son's creative passing numbers aren't as great as i thought they'd be. The talk this season is Son and Kane setting each other up, but Son's passing numbers are well behind Kane's. Some of Son's creative passing numbers are more in line with other strikers and Kane has the numbers of a CAM.
Son is also performing well above his xG (11 goals off 3.9 xG) so when i weighted both numbers at 2x, he didnt rank as well as other strikers that have high goals and high xG. for example DCL has 11 goals off 9.24 expected goals. The aim is to include xG to try and overcome small sample sizes of players outperforming xG.
And because he's scoring at the rate he is, his touches in the box is well low too.
I was looking at goals + assists, where he is level with DLC and Fernandes and ahead of Grealish, Mane and Zaha. He's also the #2 leading points-getter in the Fantasy Premier League scoring system, just 2 points behind Salah and well ahead of all the others, even Kane who has a higher goals + assists total.
I mean, how important is dribbles per game, really...not much IMO. Also, Son can and does defend on the other end, which gets somewhat picked up in the Fantasy scoring system (which is why he's ahead of Kane), but, isn't going to get picked up by looking at just the attacking stats.
I say trust your eyes and not the numbers (and I say that as a stats major in college)! Any set of stats that says he's the 16th best player in the Premier League is absolutely worthless IMO and should just be binned. I think Son is easily top 3 this season and may even be #1. It's between him and Kane; I think Salah's numbers flatter him.
Hey mate, thanks for the reply. I love this stuff! Thanks for reading too!
It's important to know that Son isn't rated the 16th best in the Premier League, it's the Top 5 Euro leagues combined. So being 16th in that is way different to being 16th in just the prem - so I'd ease up on the whole "absolutely worthless" thing haha!
I think dribbles are a pretty important part of the game, but that's not really here nor there and subjective either way, if we removed dribbles he's still in 13th in the leagues combined.
A main reason that Son is scoring more than Kane in FPL is that goals are worth more when a midfielder scores them compared to a forward (5 for a mid, and 4 for a forward). Granted, that has merit, but I think it's debatable how much Son has payed as a mid this season. I think he and Kane have been pretty fluid in their positioning this season. Son has 11 goals this year, so that's 11 points more than Kane would get off the same output.
And just adding goals and assists isn't perfect either. That would have guys like Mkhitaryan (10th) and Ben Yedder (14th) both in the top 15 for the top Euro Leagues combined this season. It also would have had Ciro Immobile as 3rd in the Ballon D'Or this last year.
I completely agree that you've got to use both numbers and the eye test combined for the best results and to understand the game at it's best.... but the point of this article/series is to try (and most likely fail) to predict the Ballon D'Or winners with just the numbers and nothing else.
So, if you normalize the Fantasy scoring (all goals count as 5 points), that would put Kane on top with 120, Salah next at 118, Son third at 116, Vardy at 112, DLC at 103 and Fernandes at 102. BUT, remember, Kane (2 goals from the penalty spot), Salah (5), Vardy (a whopping 6!!! goals from penalties) and Fernandes (5) all have their stats padded from these cheap goals by virtue of being their clubs' respective penalty takers. If you count those goals at, say, half points, then the order becomes 1. Son 2. Kane 3. Salah 4. DLC 5. Vardy 6. Fernandes, which I think paints a far more realistic picture of the quality that each has actually exhibited qualitatively on the pitch this season (I might have switched Vardy and Fernandes around, and Kane and Son are arguably interchangeable at #1 and #2 with Salah a meaningful distance behind in third).
I'm going to have to play Devil's Advocate on other aspects of the rankings as well - I think far from the numbers showing that Messi (who is my favorite player, and it pains me to say this) showing in a down year how good he really is, I think it shows that the model is putting too much value on stats & variables that ultimately don't mean that much. I hate to say it, but, Messi has picked up a lot of cheap, stat-padding goals this season (he scored the 3rd goal in a 3-0 blanking of Valladolid, the 4th goal in a 4-0 thumping of Osasuna, and a cheap penalty against Betis with the game already won, for starters) while both he and the club have been hugely inconsistent and disappointing. Mbappe has also racked up a lot of cheap penalties and meaningless goals against hugely inferior opposition this season - he may still be one of the top 10 or 15 players in Europe, but, in my mind, he has done sweet FA to burnish his stature since 2018 when he was arguably the 3rd best player in the world and the brightest young talent by miles (IMO, he's neither at this point and still has so, so much to prove).
If I'm a Ballon d'Or voter right now, my top 3 are Lewandowski, Kane and Son. Though, of course, politics, peer pressure and all sorts of other factors than performance on the pitch always playing a role in the end, which is why both statistical models and qualitative judgment will often come up short! Don't get me started on all the selections which I feel were unjustified/botched over the decades, LOL...
Vince - how on earth is Heung-Min Son not on the list? His numbers are better than Grealish, Mane, Zaha, etc. and on par with DLC, Fernandes, etc. Qualitatively, I rate him and Kane as the two best players in the Premier League at the moment, and I say that as a lifelong Arsenal supporter.
Hey mate! Cheers for the message. I agree that Son is having a great season. If i was going to pencil a top 10 without touching the numbers he'd have been in it.
Son was actually 16th, 0.6 behind Zaha. When you say his numbers are better, what numbers do you mean exactly besides goals?
Where Son gets let down in this test would be the dribbles per game, he's sitting at around 2.5 which is way behind Grealish (10.16), Mane (8.02), and Zaha (7.8).
If i took dribbling out, he'd move up to 13th, still behind Grealish but just above Mane and Zaha.
Also, Son's creative passing numbers aren't as great as i thought they'd be. The talk this season is Son and Kane setting each other up, but Son's passing numbers are well behind Kane's. Some of Son's creative passing numbers are more in line with other strikers and Kane has the numbers of a CAM.
Son is also performing well above his xG (11 goals off 3.9 xG) so when i weighted both numbers at 2x, he didnt rank as well as other strikers that have high goals and high xG. for example DCL has 11 goals off 9.24 expected goals. The aim is to include xG to try and overcome small sample sizes of players outperforming xG.
And because he's scoring at the rate he is, his touches in the box is well low too.
I was looking at goals + assists, where he is level with DLC and Fernandes and ahead of Grealish, Mane and Zaha. He's also the #2 leading points-getter in the Fantasy Premier League scoring system, just 2 points behind Salah and well ahead of all the others, even Kane who has a higher goals + assists total.
I mean, how important is dribbles per game, really...not much IMO. Also, Son can and does defend on the other end, which gets somewhat picked up in the Fantasy scoring system (which is why he's ahead of Kane), but, isn't going to get picked up by looking at just the attacking stats.
I say trust your eyes and not the numbers (and I say that as a stats major in college)! Any set of stats that says he's the 16th best player in the Premier League is absolutely worthless IMO and should just be binned. I think Son is easily top 3 this season and may even be #1. It's between him and Kane; I think Salah's numbers flatter him.
Hey mate, thanks for the reply. I love this stuff! Thanks for reading too!
It's important to know that Son isn't rated the 16th best in the Premier League, it's the Top 5 Euro leagues combined. So being 16th in that is way different to being 16th in just the prem - so I'd ease up on the whole "absolutely worthless" thing haha!
I think dribbles are a pretty important part of the game, but that's not really here nor there and subjective either way, if we removed dribbles he's still in 13th in the leagues combined.
A main reason that Son is scoring more than Kane in FPL is that goals are worth more when a midfielder scores them compared to a forward (5 for a mid, and 4 for a forward). Granted, that has merit, but I think it's debatable how much Son has payed as a mid this season. I think he and Kane have been pretty fluid in their positioning this season. Son has 11 goals this year, so that's 11 points more than Kane would get off the same output.
And just adding goals and assists isn't perfect either. That would have guys like Mkhitaryan (10th) and Ben Yedder (14th) both in the top 15 for the top Euro Leagues combined this season. It also would have had Ciro Immobile as 3rd in the Ballon D'Or this last year.
I completely agree that you've got to use both numbers and the eye test combined for the best results and to understand the game at it's best.... but the point of this article/series is to try (and most likely fail) to predict the Ballon D'Or winners with just the numbers and nothing else.
So, if you normalize the Fantasy scoring (all goals count as 5 points), that would put Kane on top with 120, Salah next at 118, Son third at 116, Vardy at 112, DLC at 103 and Fernandes at 102. BUT, remember, Kane (2 goals from the penalty spot), Salah (5), Vardy (a whopping 6!!! goals from penalties) and Fernandes (5) all have their stats padded from these cheap goals by virtue of being their clubs' respective penalty takers. If you count those goals at, say, half points, then the order becomes 1. Son 2. Kane 3. Salah 4. DLC 5. Vardy 6. Fernandes, which I think paints a far more realistic picture of the quality that each has actually exhibited qualitatively on the pitch this season (I might have switched Vardy and Fernandes around, and Kane and Son are arguably interchangeable at #1 and #2 with Salah a meaningful distance behind in third).
I'm going to have to play Devil's Advocate on other aspects of the rankings as well - I think far from the numbers showing that Messi (who is my favorite player, and it pains me to say this) showing in a down year how good he really is, I think it shows that the model is putting too much value on stats & variables that ultimately don't mean that much. I hate to say it, but, Messi has picked up a lot of cheap, stat-padding goals this season (he scored the 3rd goal in a 3-0 blanking of Valladolid, the 4th goal in a 4-0 thumping of Osasuna, and a cheap penalty against Betis with the game already won, for starters) while both he and the club have been hugely inconsistent and disappointing. Mbappe has also racked up a lot of cheap penalties and meaningless goals against hugely inferior opposition this season - he may still be one of the top 10 or 15 players in Europe, but, in my mind, he has done sweet FA to burnish his stature since 2018 when he was arguably the 3rd best player in the world and the brightest young talent by miles (IMO, he's neither at this point and still has so, so much to prove).
If I'm a Ballon d'Or voter right now, my top 3 are Lewandowski, Kane and Son. Though, of course, politics, peer pressure and all sorts of other factors than performance on the pitch always playing a role in the end, which is why both statistical models and qualitative judgment will often come up short! Don't get me started on all the selections which I feel were unjustified/botched over the decades, LOL...
Anyway, fun reading and conversation as always!
Hahaha good banter and I enjoy you reading. I think there's still a few things we disagree on, but that's the beauty of it!